Quitting patient care and career break intentions among general practitioners in South West England: findings of a census survey of general practitioners

Objective: Given recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs’ career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years. Design: Census survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses , of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary. Setting: South West England (population 3.5  million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation. Participants: Eligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67 % response rate). Main outcome measures: Reported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for non-response. Results: Responders included 217 7 GPs engaged in patient care. Of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95%  CI 35 % to 39 %) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95%  CI 68 % to 72 %) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95%  CI 13 % to 16 %) reported high morale, while 1195 ( 54 % weighted, 95%  CI 52 % to 56 %) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs’ career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break. Conclusions: A substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period. Study registration: NIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700

Workforce predictive risk modelling: development of a model to identify general practices at risk of a supply−demand imbalance

Objective: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model identifying general practices at risk of workforce supply–demand imbalance. Design: This is a secondary analysis of routine data on general practice workforce, patient experience and registered populations (2012 to 2016), combined with a census of general practitioners’ (GPs’) career intentions (2016). Setting/Participants: A hybrid approach was used to develop a model to predict workforce supply–demand imbalance based on practice factors using historical data (2012–2016) on all general practices in England (with over 1000 registered patients n=6398). The model was applied to current data (2016) to explore future risk for practices in South West England (n=368). Primary outcome measure: The primary outcome was a practice being in a state of workforce supply–demand imbalance operationally defined as being in the lowest third nationally of access scores according to the General Practice Patient Survey and the highest third nationally according to list size per full-time equivalent GP (weighted to the demographic distribution of registered patients and adjusted for deprivation). Results: Based on historical data, the predictive model had fair to good discriminatory ability to predict which practices faced supply–demand imbalance (area under receiver operating characteristic curve=0.755). Predictions using current data suggested that, on average, practices at highest risk of future supply–demand imbalance are currently characterised by having larger patient lists, employing more nurses, serving more deprived and younger populations, and having considerably worse patient experience ratings when compared with other practices. Incorporating findings from a survey of GP’s career intentions made little difference to predictions of future supply–demand risk status when compared with expected future workforce projections based only on routinely available data on GPs’ gender and age. Conclusions: It is possible to make reasonable predictions of an individual general practice’s future risk of undersupply of GP workforce with respect to its patient population. However, the predictions are inherently limited by the data available

The association between demographic factors, user reported experiences and user satisfaction: results from three casualty clinics in Norway

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>User reported experiences and satisfaction are increasingly used as basis for quality indicators in the health sector. However, there is limited understanding of factors associated with user reported experiences and satisfaction with casualty clinics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A random sample of 542 patients that had contacted any of three casualty clinics from mid April to mid May 2008 was mailed a questionnaire. A reminder was sent to non-respondents after six weeks. Descriptive statistics for four user reported experiences scales and 20 single items are presented. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess associations between background variables and user reported experiences, and between user reported experiences and user satisfaction.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>225 (41.5%) patients, carers and guardians returned a completed questionnaire. Users reported most positive experiences with the doctor services and the nursing services at the casualty clinics; on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 is the best possible experience the doctor scale was 82 and the nursing scale 81. Users reported least positive experiences with the organization of the casualty clinic, with a scale score of 65. Self perceived health was associated with user satisfaction, while self perceived health and age were associated with user reported experiences with organization of the clinics. A range of user reported experience domains were related to user satisfaction, after controlling for socio-demographic variables, including experiences with doctor services at the clinics, organization of the clinics, information and self perceived incorrect treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Users report positive experiences with the three casualty clinics, with organization as the aspect with largest improvement potential. The importance of age and health status for users' experiences and satisfaction with casualty clinics was shown, but a range of user reported experiences with the clinics were the most important predictors for user satisfaction.</p

Carbon stable isotope analysis of cereal remains as a way to reconstruct water availability: preliminary results

Reconstructing past water availability, both as rainfall and irrigation, is important to answer questions about the way society reacts to climate and its changes and the role of irrigation in the development of social complexity. Carbon stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains is a potentially valuable method for reconstructing water availability. To further define the relationship between water availability and plant carbon isotope composition and to set up baseline values for the Southern Levant, grains of experimentally grown barley and sorghum were studied. The cereal crops were grown at three stations under five different irrigation regimes in Jordan. Results indicate that a positive but weak relationship exists between irrigation regime and total water input of barley grains, but no relationship was found for sorghum. The relationship for barley is site-specific and inter-annual variation was present at Deir ‘Alla, but not at Ramtha and Khirbet as-Samra

An interferon-inducible neutrophil-driven blood transcriptional signature in human tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and efforts to control TB are hampered by difficulties with diagnosis, prevention and treatment 1,2. Most people infected with M. tuberculosis remain asymptomatic, termed latent TB, with a 10% lifetime risk of developing active TB disease, but current tests cannot identify which individuals will develop disease 3. The immune response to M. tuberculosis is complex and incompletely characterized, hindering development of new diagnostics, therapies and vaccines 4,5. We identified a whole blood 393 transcript signature for active TB in intermediate and high burden settings, correlating with radiological extent of disease and reverting to that of healthy controls following treatment. A subset of latent TB patients had signatures similar to those in active TB patients. We also identified a specific 86-transcript signature that discriminated active TB from other inflammatory and infectious diseases. Modular and pathway analysis revealed that the TB signature was dominated by a neutrophil-driven interferon (IFN)-inducible gene profile, consisting of both IFN-γ and Type I IFNαβ signalling. Comparison with transcriptional signatures in purified cells and flow cytometric analysis, suggest that this TB signature reflects both changes in cellular composition and altered gene expression. Although an IFN signature was also observed in whole blood of patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), their complete modular signature differed from TB with increased abundance of plasma cell transcripts. Our studies demonstrate a hitherto under-appreciated role of Type I IFNαβ signalling in TB pathogenesis, which has implications for vaccine and therapeutic development. Our study also provides a broad range of transcriptional biomarkers with potential as diagnostic and prognostic tools to combat the TB epidemic

Control of Centrin Stability by Aurora A

Aurora A is an oncogenic serine/threonine kinase which can cause cell transformation and centrosome amplification when over-expressed. Human breast tumors show excess Aurora A and phospho-centrin in amplified centrosomes. Here, we show that Aurora A mediates the phosphorylation of and localizes with centrin at the centrosome, with both proteins reaching maximum abundance from prophase through metaphase, followed by their precipitous loss in late stages of mitosis. Over-expression of Aurora A results in excess phospho-centrin and centrosome amplification. In contrast, centrosome amplification is not seen in cells over-expressing Aurora A in the presence of a recombinant centrin mutant lacking the serine phosphorylation site at residue 170. Expression of a kinase dead Aurora A results in a decrease in mitotic index and abrogation of centrin phosphorylation. Finally, a recombinant centrin mutation that mimics centrin phosphorylation increases centrin's stability against APC/C-mediated proteasomal degradation. Taken together, these results suggest that the stability of centrin is regulated in part by Aurora A, and that excess phosphorylated centrin may promote centrosome amplification in cancer

The Role of Primary Care in Service Provision for People with Severe Mental Illness in the United Kingdom

Severe mental illness is a serious and potentially life changing set of conditions. This paper describes and analyses patient characteristics and service usage over one year of a representative cohort of people with a diagnosis of severe mental illness across England, including contacts with primary and secondary care and continuity of care

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a telehealth intervention to support the management of long-term conditions: study protocol for two linked randomized controlled trials

Background: As the population ages, more people are suffering from long-term health conditions (LTCs). Health services around the world are exploring new ways of supporting people with LTCs and there is great interest in the use of telehealth: technologies such as the Internet, telephone and home self-monitoring. Methods/Design: This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a telehealth intervention delivered by NHS Direct to support patients with LTCs. Two randomized controlled trials will be conducted in parallel, recruiting patients with two exemplar LTCs: depression or raised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A total of 1,200 patients will be recruited from approximately 42 general practices near Bristol, Sheffield and Southampton, UK. Participants will be randomly allocated to either usual care (control group) or usual care plus the NHS Direct Healthlines Service (intervention group). The intervention is based on a conceptual model incorporating promotion of self-management, optimisation of treatment, coordination of care and engagement of patients and general practitioners. Participants will be provided with tailored help, combining telephone advice from health information advisors with support to use a range of online resources. Participants will access the service for 12 months. Outcomes will be collected at baseline, four, eight and 12 months for the depression trial and baseline, six and 12 months for the CVD risk trial. The primary outcome will be the proportion of patients responding to treatment, defined in the depression trial as a PHQ-9 score <10 and an absolute reduction in PHQ-9 ≥5 after 4 months, and in the CVD risk trial as maintenance or reduction of 10-year CVD risk after 12 months. The study will also assess whether the intervention is cost-effective from the perspective of the NHS and personal social services. An embedded qualitative interview study will explore healthcare professionals’ and patients’ views of the intervention. Discussion: This study evaluates a complex telehealth intervention which combines evidence-based components and is delivered by an established healthcare organisation. The study will also analyse health economic information. In doing so, the study hopes to address some of the limitations of previous research by demonstrating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a real world telehealth interventio

Response to symptoms of stroke in the UK: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The English National Stroke Strategy suggests that there is a need to improve the response of patients and witnesses to the symptoms of acute stroke to increase rapid access to specialist care. We wished to review the evidence base regarding the knowledge, attitudes and behaviours of stroke patients, witnesses and the public to the symptoms of stroke and the need for an urgent response at the onset of symptoms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic review of UK articles reporting empirical research on a) awareness of and response to the symptoms of acute stroke or TIA, and b) beliefs and attitudes about diagnosis, early treatment and consequences of acute stroke or TIA. Nine electronic databases were searched using a robust search strategy. Citations and abstracts were screened independently by two reviewers. Data were extracted by two researchers independently using agreed criteria.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>11 studies out of 7144 citations met the inclusion criteria. Methods of data collection included: postal survey (n = 2); interview survey (n = 6); review of hospital documentation (n = 2) and qualitative interviews (n = 1). Limited data reveal a good level of knowledge of the two commonest stroke symptoms (unilateral weakness and speech disturbance), and of the need for an emergency response among the general public and at risk patients. Despite this, less than half of patients recognised they had suffered a stroke. Symptom recognition did not reduce time to presentation. For the majority, the first point of contact for medical assistance was a general practitioner.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There is an assumption that, in the UK, public knowledge of the symptoms of stroke and of the need for an emergency response is lacking, but there is little published research to support this. Public awareness raising campaigns to improve response to the symptoms of stroke therefore may not produce an increase in desired behaviours. Further research is needed to understand why people who experience or witness stroke symptoms frequently do not call emergency services.</p